RichardGibbons

Let me repost my 5 things that people don't understand. [*]Exponential growth [*]It takes weeks between infection and hospitalization and death [*]Hospitals are not infinitely expandable--if enough people come in, hospitals run out of resources [*]If you're in the ICU with this, you are likely in there for weeks [*]That without ventilators, the death rate increases dramatically The things you don't understand are items 2, 3, 4, and 5. When you put in the lockdown, it seems like it's about 2 weeks until cases fall (assuming similar testing criteria, which seems to rarely be true.) Once someone is symptomatic, it seems to take somewhere in the range of 2-3 weeks for them to die. Hospital resources, and in particular the ICU, fill up and the death rate increases as this happens. So, if your ICU isn't filled, you'd expect to see deaths decline between 4 and 5 weeks after lockdown. If the ICU reaches capacity, you'd expect deaths to decline even later than that, since the percentage of people dying because they can't get access to ICU treatments will increase.

I just got a phone survey from the (Canadian) federal government. The first question was, "What do you think the Federal government should be focused on today?" (My wife suggested I should've answered, "They should be focused on opening more dog parks.") The other questions were basically asking whether I though the government was doing well, whether I'd heard of what the government had done, which things I though were the most important, and how stressful various aspects of the government response were to me. One of the questions was basically, "Are you stressed that you can't go to hockey games right now?" It did make me wonder about the degree to which the government cares the perception of its actions relative to the value of its actions. Too bad there wasn't a question on that....

I've said it before Richard. I voted for Obama in 2008. I did not like Trump at all during the election process. I could not stand Hillary. But it's Ground Hog Day once again - Russia Hoax, Ukraine Corruption, Kavanaugh, Stormy Daniels, etc, etc, etc, Another shot to get rid of the dictator - where the opposition party and/or media share no responsibility for the state of the country. In spite of being voted in - from Day 1 - the resistance began - the enormous bitterness - I've never seen anything like it. I'm in favor of moving the country forward - which the President has done - love him or hate him. Now Trump is a BLUNT INSTRUMENT for sure. Many, many people love him - although many also do not approve of his tactics. So you are free to keep going. There is an election right around the corner. It will all be settled soon. OK, I think I understand from this response what you'd do. Thanks for the honest answer.

I'm surprised that the undercounting of COVID-19 death is this dramatic in the USA--basically missing almost half the cases in New York. https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths That makes it pretty hard to compare stats (though I suppose everyone is undercounting.)

Hey, I'm curious cubsfan. If Trump transfers all $2 trillion of Coronavirus money to his own bank accounts, how will you defend him? (I doubt he will, but I am curious how you will defend him, so I figured I'd just ask directly.)

This is a very nice summary of where we are, with a realistic balance of optimism and pessimism, IMO. Thanks, Dalal.

It's pretty interesting that some people have the "no big deal" perspective still, just as New York City is considering creating mass graves in parks. https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-new-york-city-considers-temporary-burial-sites-as-the-death-toll-rises

Yeah, I think it will have an effect, but not that big an effect. One of the nice things about Canada is that our population isn't under the influence of propaganda networks to the extent that the USA is, which makes our politics less polarized and our populace better able to understand that the world is filled with shades of grey. So, I think most Canadians will be quick to condemn Trump, but far less quick to condemn most Americans, and continue to see them as friends and neighbours. Strong Trump supporters will get contempt and derision from Canadians, but I think that's a pretty small percentage of Americans who visit up north, and even for Trump supporters, the contempt and derision often won't be that openly displayed.

I think you could be roughly right about this date, though I think it'll be on a state by state basis, with most coming after this date. (That said, as far as I can see, there still isn't evidence for your "COVID-19 is widespread" theory. I think it'll open up based on declining cases, quarantine fatigue, and the balance of pain shifting from dying people to a dying economy. So we end up in the same place, just with different explanations.)

To me, this answers your questions--the projections on the high side are still less than a 10% increase in business, and funerals are gatherings of people which are discouraged. It might a small net positive to them or even a small net negative, but it certainly doesn't seem like it can be a large net positive. So, possibly good for defence, but probably not good for offense.

I'm perplexed as to why anyone other than an oil worker or politician would see any benefit to bailing out the oil industry (or even the aviation industry, for that matter). They're not like the banks, where multiple failures can potentially break the economy. The productive physical assets will still be there after bankruptcy. So, let the companies die, and give the next guy a go. (I think this is probably true for almost any industry that derives its production primarily from physical assets.)

Nah, Trump's already been proven wrong. If there's a hurricane, and everyone boards up their windows and takes shelter, and few people die, it would be pretty stupid to say, "Hey, the deaths in the last hurricane weren't that bad--the threat was way overblown. So let's just ignore the hurricane the next time."

For me, work would certainly be included in the mask-wearing normalcy. I'm not sure about sporting events--I think it depends on how effective masks are at reducing the R0 in such venues. I suppose international travel falls into this category as well. That said, to me, the normalcy that matters is work. The economy is a big deal, and if we can get back to a normal-ish economy (including malls, restaurants and most service businesses, but maybe not including theatre, sports and other events that bring together groups of hundreds of people), then I feel like we'd have a good degree of economic and health stability. Basically, we should aim for South Korea without the creepy mobile phone tracking.

I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen. If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0. That makes the dance phase much easier. What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu. So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July.

I thought last Presidential election had two awful choices, but this one's far worse. Biden's dementia makes him a terrible choice to lead a country.

This response to Trump's blocking of medical equipment to other countries is quite good not just because it's true, but also because it seems like a much more productive way to react to the situation than the more natural anger: While it's easy to become very angry about this, let's keep one thing very clearly in mind: however much damage this Republican government does to Canada's response.. the amount of damage they've done to America and Americans is an order of magnitude higher. Remember that the US hasn't even hit the peak yet. Remember that Republican senators were trading stocks on the COVID response before they were alerting the public. Remember that the situation in NY hasn't peaked, and the situation in Florida and the rest of the south hasn't even started. Remember that rural America hasn't even started to feel this yet, and they have far worse health resources than urban America. Remember that the American health care system never needed the capacity to provide health insurance to all of its people - unlike Canada's public system which has been serving all Canadians for a long time. Remember that their states are fighting with each other and with the feds in trying to obtain medical supplies. Remember that their Republican president and media were literally asking them to die so that their economy could be restarted. So as much as we can get angry at the American government, and the Republican government that's running this response.. let's keep in mind that the American people are the first and primary victims of this feckless administration, and they will feel pain far greater than Canadians ever will. Canada will get through this. We'll get through a large part due to the fact that we're working effectively together, and we have a government we can largely trust, both provincially and federally. Let us be thankful for what we have, and get through this. Source

Mcliu - what a pleasure it is to have someone with some intellectual honesty here. Much too rare. Wow, I've been reading this site for about two decades, and this is the most ironic post I've ever seen on it! Good job, cubsfan!

The fun thing is that two can play this game. The pulp used to make the N95 masks comes from BC. It's not the right move for Canada to effectively kill a bunch of American healthcare workers just because Trump wants to do things that will kill a bunch of Canadian healthcare workers. But then again, if you're playing a game of iterative Prisoner's Dilemma, and your opponent keeps choosing betray, the right option is to start choosing betray as well, and keep doing it until the other side realizes that co-operation has better outcomes than betrayal. So is the right long-term option for Canada to halt America's production of N95 masks?

This is interesting data, even if it is totally creepy that Google has it. https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

I think you're not really interested in an answer. If I'm wrong, the answer has been all over this thread. Go look it up. I'm surprised that you have so much faith in the transparency of the Chinese Communist Party in sharing the number of deaths. (It's still noteworthy that USA has a 5x per capita death rate compared to Canada. If you think Canada's managing this poorly, you must think that the USA is managing this horrendously.)

Yes, if they act like idiots (beachgoers). No, if they don't (healthcare workers, people stuck in long-term care, etc). That said, I'm not quite sure where you're going with this question. Even if someone got it by being reckless, if they get send to hospital, they're using up resources that could be used for people who got it without being reckless.

Yeah, this is a really great question, and I think Wabuffo's answer is an interesting one. Up until now, I've always assumed that it's actually a demand shock--that there's a fixed weekly schedule of deliveries but the demand surge has led to empty shelves. Then, after people have seen stuff sold out, the next time they see the items in stores, they stock up more than they would normally, causing empty shelves again. Or, it could be that there really is a demand shift. Restaurants could be a significant amount of food consumption, so if people stop going to restaurants and buy from grocery stores, then grocery stores can no longer get enough supply to deal with the demand.

OK, but Trump didn't do this, some of the states did. Recently, he's said he won't stop social distancing until the end of April, but he didn't start it. He's pretending that if he jumps in front of a parade people will think he's the leader. (FYI, Al Gore didn't invent the Internet.) In fact, it's not even clear to me that he could stop social distancing if he tried, since he didn't start it. Forcing? They kind of were already. I'll give you "encouraging", though. Basic minimum. Is this seriously the propaganda channel's spin on things? By firing the pandemic response team in 2018, he was reducing bureaucracy? Or do you mean cutting CDC budgets? It's shocking to me that anyone would believe this is a good thing. On the other hand, it's amazing what a modern-day propaganda network can get people to believe. (Maybe he should do the same thing to corporations--increase the corporate tax rate to force them to get rid of bureaucracy so that they can really get something done.) He is, but he's giving them misinformation. In a pandemic, misinformation is really problematic, because it kills people. His daily briefings have been a net negative (well, except from an entertainment perspective.) Yep, Trump's the only politician on the planet who's figured out that there's both a medical emergency and an economic emergency. This is a good idea, though I imagine it won't have much of an effect for this pandemic. I don't think he's done this before this pandemic, but he deserves kudos for doing it afterward. The fact that these items are the only thing a passionate Trump supporter can come up with kind of shows how awful he's been.

Because I was curious, I calculated the per-capita deaths of the countries with the top 20 GDP excluding China, Russia, India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia. (I excluded those countries because I doubt they'll have reliable data. I imagine all of them will grossly underestimate COVID-19 deaths.) Here's the current results. It's pretty amazing to me that USA is already #9 considering it's early in the process. It's also noteworthy that it's over five times worse than the country with the most similar culture, Canada. #CountryDeaths ...Per 100K 1Italy13157 21.76 2Spain9053 19.36 3Belgium828 7.14 4Netherlands1173 6.85 5France4032 6.18 6Switzerland378 4.37 7UK2532 3.73 8Sweden239 2.37 9USA5138 1.55 10Germany872 1.04 11South Korea169 0.33 12Canada109 0.29 13Mexico37 0.15 14Poland43 0.11 15Brazil241 0.11 16Australia21 0.08 17Argentina31 0.07 18Japan57 0.05 19Taiwan5 0.02 20Thailand12 0.02

Well, the thing is, I don't believe you. Because people have told you at least 10 different concrete things that Trump did that were terrible, and you disregarded them all in order to cheer for Trump and repeatedly trumpet the one thing he did properly. So, I don't buy that the problem is that people aren't giving you enough concrete information. I think the problem is that you don't care at all about concrete information, but rather care about defending your favorite team to the exclusion of reason. So, let's go with the per-capita deaths metric. It's not really fair, but it's clear that you don't care about ways it's not fair except insofar as it bolsters your case, so I'm OK with ignoring unfairness, and just assuming that it balances out between countries. (It doesn't really, but it's very clear that any for any discussion that involves any degree of analysis of what leaders did right and wrong, "Trump blocked flights from China" is far more important to you than "Trump went on National TV, and said only 15 people had it, it wasn't a big deal, and it would vanish by April". My hypothesis is that the numbers will show that the latter is more important than the former.)