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It's less timing and more systematic. I sell a small portion of each position at it rises by 10-20% pending it's historical volatility and where it's RSI is at. I've been trimming Fairfax ever since we passed $650 USD. Haven't had much opportunity to repurchase it yet so maybe this one is a bust that doesn't work out. But I trimmed Altius at various points all the way up to $20 USD and have purchased nearly all of those shares back. Have pulled thousands out of the position while retaining similar ownership. Eurobank has been trimmed by ~25% over the last year - I have just successfully bought the tranche of shares I sold for ~0.85/share for ~0.75/share. I have other limit orders out to buy more back if the price keeps falling to rebuild that 25%. I've been systematically trading Whitecap Resources a ton since 2021. There have been probably a have dozen opportunities to sell shares between $10-12 and repurchase them back between $8-9 over the last 18-24 months. I've done this with nearly every position I own or sold covered calls against them with premiums going into fixed income. The name of the game is to compound as quickly and as much as possible. I'm not afraid of stocks - I think my returns will be better in fixed income. I'm motivated by greed- not fear. I'm the same guy who owns sizable portfolio allocations to Bitcoin, was buying Sberbank after the sanctions, and has been sitting on Fannie Mae preferreds for a decade. I'm comfortable with high risk. I'm comfortable with high drawdowns. But only when I feel I'm being compensated for it via the potential upside. Point is, volatility doesn't scare me - I just want to get paid for accepting it. Im buying bonds because they pay well for the the downside potential I expect. Stocks, on average, pay poorly for the downside potential I expect. Outside of a handful of individual equities, I expect bonds to outperform.

I just don't believe it's gonna get 6% on the S&P. Requires average earnings to go up 5-6% per annum and NOT contract on multiple. Earnings are already contracting and accounting moves are becoming more aggressive to hide the extent of the shrinkage judging by the difference in GAAP profits and tax receipts. A large chunk of the EPS growth we've seen over the last decade came from 1) expanding margins and 2) repurchases. Not organic revenue growth. Neither of those are sustainable into perpetuity as trends. Margin expansion will have to stop, at some point, if not outright contract. Repurchases? Currently generating a 3-4% ROE based on the earnings yield - so way below the 5-6% you'd need as a hurdle rate. They'd be better off repaying debt or keeping cash on hand to pay off the debt when it comes due. You remove those things and the engine that resulted in the bulk of EPS growth over the last decade is gone, or operating in reverse. I don't see how we get to 5-6% without significant nominal inflation to goose revenues. Which, if we get, you will NOT see 25-30 multiples on infinite duration assets like equities - it'll be another 2022. So...you're still gonna take a f*cking beating up front which may then set the stage for equities being attractive again. And all of this is trying to get to 6%. Why not buy mortgages, corporates, HY, and EM all which yield more than that to start and call it a day?

This is why I'm buying bonds. Even if you're not bearish on equities like I am, the assumptions you have to make on earnings growth are herculean to outperform spread fixed income. 6-7% in mortgages, 6.5-7% in IG corporates, 8-10% in EM and HY. You starting at 2-3x the implied return for the S&P 500 without making any assumptions on price returns, multiples, and interest rates. I don't think bonds are the biggest no-brainer on an absolute basis, but relative to equities it is hard to make a case for not owning them. Especially if the Fed KEEPS raising rates as a ton of duration has been removed from the market already - each rise in rates is going to do more for future reinvestment and income than price hits to bonds.